Dark side of the moon: Motorcycle deaths linked to full moons.

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https://www.princeton.edu/news/2017/12/ ... full-moons

Research published Dec. 11 in The BMJ points toward another potential distraction for motorists: the full moon, gracing the sky with its brightness around 12 times a year, and the dazzling supermoon, which comes into focus around once a year.

The researchers found that on nights illuminated by a full moon, fatal motorcycle accidents increased by 5 percent compared to nights without a full moon. On evenings when the supermoon decorated the sky, this increased to 32 percent. The study included data from the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.

While this observational data cannot prove any firm conclusions, the researchers warn drivers of the risks of seemingly minor distractions, urging constant attention while driving at all times.

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“Drivers face a number of distractions behind the wheel — from texting, to phone calls to road obstructions and more,” said study co-author Eldar Shafir, the Class of 1987 Professor in Behavioral Science and Public Policy and professor of psychology and public affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. “Our study adds to the literature that small distractions can sometimes lead to life-altering consequences.”

“Glancing at the full moon takes the motorcyclist’s gaze off the road, which could result in a loss of control,” said the study’s lead author Redelmeier, professor in the Department of Medicine at the University of Toronto. “The average ride on a motorcycle is more dangerous than a drunk driver with no seatbelt traveling the same distance. Because of this, we recommend riders and drivers orient their attention, ignore distractions and continuously monitor their dynamic surroundings.”

Redelmeier and Shafir hypothesized that people’s attention may be naturally drawn to a full moon, thereby potentially contributing to fatal motorcycle crashes. To test this, they analyzed data from the official United States registry of motor vehicle crashes from 1975 to 2014, during which time 494 full moons and 65 supermoons appeared. They calculated the number of fatal crashes on full moon nights compared to nights with a quarter moon (one week before and after the full moon).

The researchers defined a full moon as the one night each month when the entire facing surface of the moon was illuminated. They also included the rare occasions in which two full moons appeared in the same month. They studied a 16-hour time frame, which they labeled as nighttime motorcycle activity, which fell between 4 p.m. and 8 a.m. The overall study duration spanned 40 consecutive years.

They found 4,994 fatal crashes occurred on the nights with a full moon, which is equal to 9.10 crashes per night. In contrast, a total of 8.64 fatal crashes per night occurred on nights without a full moon. Fatalities increased further under a supermoon, amounting to a total of 703 fatal crashes, or 10.82 fatal crashes per night. This means that for every two full moon nights, there was one additional fatal crash. Under the supermoon, this increased to two additional deaths.

Overall, there was a total increase of 226 additional fatal crashes on nights with a full moon during the entire study period.

“While these figures might seem low on the surface, they are quite significant,” Redelmeier said. “All of these deaths could have been prevented completely by small difference in behavior.”

The typical motorcyclist was a middle-aged man riding a street bike with a large engine in a rural location, who experienced a head-on front impact. Less than half were wearing a helmet. Seventy-three percent of the crashes occurred during the hours before midnight, and 27 percent occurred during the hours after midnight.

The researchers repeated their analyses in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia and found similar results.

The researchers highlight the limitations of the study. For example, other distractions and traffic hazards were not taken into account, and neither were factors including the prevailing weather or moon visibility. And while they used large datasets, like any routinely collected data, errors could have been made when the data was entered.

Nevertheless, the study’s findings highlight the importance of safe, careful and attentive driving, under all conditions.

“We encourage motorcycle riders to wear a helmet, activate headlights, scan the road surface and be wary of other vehicles,” Redelmeier said. “The best approach to safe driving is reducing as many distractions as possible and keeping alert behind the wheel.”

“That’s good advice for all the rest of us who don’t ride motorcycles, too,” Shafir said.

The paper, “The full moon and motorcycle related mortality: population based double control study,” first appeared online Dec. 11 in The BMJ. The project was supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Ontario Ministry of Transportation.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr- ... chers-find

December 13

If there’s a full moon in the sky and you’re about to hop on your motorcycle, think twice: Researchers have found that the risk of having a fatal crash is higher on nights with a full moon.

The study, published in the British Medical Journal this week, found that on nights when a full moon graces the sky, the risk of a fatal motorcycle crash is 5 percent higher than on nights without a full moon. And when the full moon is a supermoon, the risk of a fatal motorcycle crash shoots up even higher, by 32 percent.

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There are several possible reasons for the observed uptick in fatal crashes. The full moon could be a distraction for motorists, and it could also alter the lighting of surrounding landscapes and cause motorists to misjudge distance and speed.

If something as remote as a full moon can be shown to increase the risk of fatal crashes, then other factors — like texting — deserve even greater attention, said Donald Redelmeier, a professor of medicine at the University of Toronto and the lead author of the study.

“Our key recommendation is that extra care is needed when riding a motorcycle under a full moon,” Redelmeier said. “And more broadly . . . the research serves as a safety reminder to the millions of people who ride a motorcycle and the millions of others who do not: that small gaps in attention can lead to irreparable consequences.”

Redelmeier, along with co-author Eldar Shafir of Princeton University, analyzed four decades of data drawn from the official United States registry of motor vehicle crashes.

Between the start of 1975 and the end of 2014, there were 494 full moons and 65 super moons. During that period, they found 4,994 fatal crashes on nights with a full moon, averaging 9.1 nightly crashes. That compares with just over 8.6 fatal crashes per night on nights without a full moon. A full moon, then, is linked with a 5 percent higher risk of a fatal crash.

During the entire study period, this amounted to a total increase of 226 additional fatal crashes on nights with a full moon. Fatalities were higher still under a supermoon, totaling 703 fatal crashes, or about 10.8 per night.

“All deaths that could have been easily prevented through a small change in rider behavior,” said Redelmeier, who is a motorcyclist.

A 5 percent increase in risk is substantial, “far greater than [the risk associated with] the daytime running of lights . . . far greater than imperfections on the roadway surface,” he added.

The risk presented by a full moon — or other similar distractions — is not typically something that motorcyclists can easily grasp, said Redelmeier.

“You just can’t feel the risk. You can feel hot or cold, hungry or thirsty, but when you’re riding a motorcycle you just can’t feel the risk until it’s too late,” he said. “The average ride on the motorcycle is more dangerous than a drunk driver with no seat belt traveling the same distance.”

“People just can’t feel risk even if it may cost them their lives,” Redelmeier added. “That’s why scientists have to be around to set the record straight, so people can’t exaggerate or ignore what’s really going on.”

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https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/12/28/mo ... oons-12334

December 28, 2017

More motorcyclists die in the United States when riding at night under a full moon.

A recent study analyzing decades of data show this to be the case, so it's not conjecture. But what is not absolutely known is whether full moons—and the attention they possibly draw away from a motorcyclist's main safety task—are the cause of the higher incidence of fatal accidents.

It was determined that over a 40-year period, during nights when a full moon was overhead, deadly accidents increased by 5 percent. Consulting detailed information gathered by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, researchers at the University of Toronto studied the circumstances surrounding more than 13,000 fatal, nighttime crashes between the years 1975 and 2014 and came away with this correlation.

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However, a direct link was not established; the conclusion of the recent study, published in the British Medical Journal, stated that the "full moon is associated with an increased risk of fatal motorcycle crashes, although potential confounders cannot be excluded." Given all the other potential distractions and road-based hazards, this makes sense.

But still, when a so-called "supermoon" was present—which is rarer, and its orbit brings it closer to the Earth than a full moon (as seen in the adjacent NASA photo of Washington, DC on Dec. 3)—researchers found motorcycle deaths spiked by 32 percent. That alarming rise in this subset group of full moons provides added weight to the speculation that this celestial body is a very real distraction to those piloting a motorcycle.

Several crash factors could be at play: a sudden burst of brightness for a rider when making a turn, causing a distraction; or a change in lighting that could make a motorcyclist "misjudge distance and speed," according to researchers. But even without a direct connection explaining exactly why more accidents take place, their message is to be extra cautious when full moons rise.

The study's lead author Donald Redelmeier says that "our key recommendation is that extra care is needed when riding a motorcycle under a full moon,” in a statement on the university's website, adding that the "research serves as a safety reminder to the millions of people who ride a motorcycle, and the millions of others who do not, that small gaps in attention can lead to irreparable consequences."

At just over 12 full moons per calendar year (given they occur every 29.5 days, or more than once per month), researchers counted 494 full moons over the 40-year study period, and 4,494 fatal accidents that occurred on those nights. By comparison, establishing two controls, they also tallied the number of fatal crashes taking place exactly one week before the full moon and one week after, arriving at 8,535. As such there were twice as many control nights as full moon nights, or 988.

This approach "indirectly reduced confounding from differences in training of the motorcyclists, traffic enforcement, individual personality, road design, vehicle condition, healthcare access, and many other influences on crash deaths," the authors wrote. "Validation of this approach appears elsewhere in analyses of road traffic risks surrounding large societal events."

The incidence of fatal crashes under a full moon were 9.10 per night, while on nights without a full moon the rate was 8.64. "Comparisons yielded a relative risk of 1.05 associated with the full moon," the researchers stated, or an increased fatality rate of 5 percent.

As for the 65 supermoon nights over these four decades, there were 703 fatal crashes, or 10.82 per night. When compared to the 8.84 nightly rate during a "regular" full moon, there was a 22 percent increase. Further, "[r]estricting analyses to the 65 supermoon nights and 130 corresponding control nights yielded a relative risk of 1.32," or a 32 percent increase.

As everyone knows, riding a motorcycle is inherently dangerous, yet it remains a popular activity. Unlike in a car, the lack of a protective cabin can turn any high-speed accident into a fatal crash. Therefore, from a safety standpoint it's essential to keep distractions to an absolute minimum. So, if you ride during a full moon it simply makes sense that—despite the provable link—you keep your eyes on the road and away from shiny things above the horizon.